Identify risks, assumptions and dependencies

Consider the assumptions

Assumptions are your underlying beliefs about how your program will work. Inaccurate or overlooked assumptions can impact how the success of your initiative is viewed. To understand your own assumptions, tap into your own experience, local wisdom, research, or best practice – think about:

• your personal ideas about the problem or situation

• the way the programme will operate

• what the programme expects to achieve

• how stakeholders learn and behave, their motivations, etc

• resources and staff

• the knowledge base

• the internal environment

Faulty assumptions are a common reason for poor results. We are often unaware of our own assumptions, so alongside doing this activity collectively as a team, we emphasise the benefit of having external people review your logic model, to challenge it and help you to notice where your assumptions lie.

Example from OpenActive: stakeholders from across the sport and activity sector, such as gyms, sports clubs and dance studios, buy into OpenActive’s roadmap for the adoption of standards.

Consider external factors

These are the conditions in the environment in which the program exists over which you have little control, but which can influence your initiative’s success. It is important to consider these factors to help mitigate against any negative outcomes they may bring. Consider using a PESTLE framework to think about the following:

• Political changes from the government

• Economic factors such as growth and interest rates

• Social factors including cultural and demographic changes

• Technological changes

• Legal changes, including new laws and regulation

• Environmental factors such as climate change

• Other

  • media coverage

  • local or national events that may influence support for your initiative

  • changes in your organisation’s leadership, or the policies and priorities of your funders

You might also want to set a risk register to identify mitigation measures to address and monitor them.

Example from OpenActive: There is a shift in government policy putting further emphasis on the UK population becoming more active, which could build further interest in funding or maintaining the standards beyond the duration of the initial project (Political).

Consider the consequences

Many evaluations and logic models only focus on intended outcomes and impacts – but it is important to consider unwanted or unlikely positive or negative results as well. Consequence scanning provides you with the opportunity to focus on the positive aspects of your initiative and mitigate or address potential harms or disasters before they happen. Essentially, consequence scanning involves answering the following questions:

• What are the intended and unintended consequences of your initiative?

• What are the positive consequences you want to focus on?

• What are the consequences you want to mitigate against?

If you find these questions difficult, or would like further information, please refer to the resources on the Consequence Scanning website to help you.

Answering these questions will help your team to share knowledge and expertise and raise concerns in a dedicated and guided format. Doing this will allow you to have important conversations, identify roadblocks, and discover new ideas, while making sure your initiative affects the change you want it to achieve.